The real estate sector is crazy.

A proud Friday!

The Hong Kong stock market is lonely in Qi Fei today. Generally speaking, there are three characteristics: first, the bottom of the real estate collective broke out; The second is that the high-interest stock sector has gone further; The third is that the expected prospect of launching a new trading policy for Hong Kong stocks has driven the Hong Kong Stock Exchange itself to rise by nearly 8%.

With the aerial relay of the market on Thursday and Friday this week, this round of bull market in Hong Kong stocks, which started after the Lunar New Year, has a more symmetrical and healthy structure and is expected to be stable and far-reaching.

The bottom of the real estate plate is pumping back

The intensive policy of real estate sector was finally reflected in the market, which opened a round of violence at the bottom. Today, on the disk, Shimao Group closed up at 60%, with the highest intraday increase of 91%. Agile closed up 13%, with an intraday high of 23%. Xuhui Holding Group closed up 11%, up 21% in intraday trading. There are also real estate stocks such as Longhu, Ocean Shipping, Longguang and Zhongliang, which all have obvious gains.

This is a further rebound after the previous wave of real estate sector rebound in Tomb-Sweeping Day.

On the policy side, following the intensive introduction of deregulation policies before the holiday, more cities joined the deregulation camp after the holiday. For example, on May 9, Hangzhou issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Regulation Policy of the Real Estate Market", which proposed measures such as completely canceling the purchase restriction of housing, expanding the scope of the first set of housing identification, and optimizing the settlement policy of points.

On the same day, the introduction of Xi ‘an also completely canceled the housing purchase restriction measures.

Earlier on May 6, Shenzhen issued the Notice on Further Optimizing the Real Estate Policy to optimize the housing purchase restriction policy by district.

On April 30th, Beijing and Tianjin announced the optimization of the housing purchase restriction policy. Tianjin made it clear that if the registered residents of this city buy a single set of new commercial housing with an area of more than 120 square meters in six districts of the city, they will no longer be qualified to purchase houses.

The Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Construction announced that under the current housing purchase restriction framework, families who have reached the number of purchase restrictions are allowed to purchase a new house outside the Fifth Ring Road.

Analysts of CITIC Jiantou Securities summarized the timetable and core contents of relaxing the purchase restriction policy in cities in mainland China since 2024, as shown in the following figure.

(Source: CITIC Jiantou Securities, Futu Niu Niu)

According to the statistics of the Central Finger Research Institute, up to now, there are only six places in the country that still implement the housing purchase restriction policy, including Hainan Province, four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and some areas of Tianjin. The doors of the property market in key cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Changsha and Nanjing have been "completely opened".

For this series of policy adjustments, Guojin Securities pointed out that the current industry fundamentals are already in the bottom range, and the room for subsequent decline has been limited, and the valuation of the real estate sector is at a historically low level.

andThe stock price of real estate stocks usually reacts faster than the recovery of fundamentals, so the bottom of real estate stocks is basically clear. First push the key layout, deepen the first-tier and core second-tier cities, focus on improving products, and have the ability to continuously acquire land.

Huatai Securities believes that it is expected that the city scope of the subsequent adjustment policy will be further expanded, which is expected to promote market confidence and fundamental repair and provide valuation repair space for the sector.

By going up one flight of stairs, a high-interest stock.

Although the direct logic to stimulate the runaway of high-interest stocks today is the rumor that Hong Kong stocks are going to cancel the dividend tax, the logic of high-interest stocks is not only this one.

In essence, the underlying factor driving the high-interest plate market is "re-interest rate reduction transaction". The specific logic is this: in March and April, global inflation remained high, while the CPI, PCE and non-agricultural data in the United States maintained high growth, so the outlook for interest rate cuts this year tends to be pessimistic.

Before the interest rate meeting in May, according to the data of CME interest rate observation window, the US interest rate futures market is expected to fall once in December after this year, and the possibility of falling is almost equal. There is even a slim chance that interest rates will be raised again this year. This is very scary. As a result, the capital market opened a panic-smashing mode. The yield of 10-year government bonds soared above 4.7, the panic index VIX exceeded 20, the global market pulled back, and the US stocks pulled back.

However, although the Fed’s interest rate meeting just passed did not give a clear road map for interest rate cuts, it put forward a plan to relax the pace of table contraction, which eased the market liquidity that was close to dryness. Last Friday’s non-agricultural data was significantly less than expected, which was equivalent to the slowdown of the US economy and provided a basis for the weakening of inflation in the future.

So according to the latest data, the probability of interest rate cuts this year has returned to twice, once in September and once in November. The possibility of raising interest rates during the year was completely destroyed.

And interest rate cuts have always been good for high-interest stocks. Because the federal interest rate in the United States is linked to the interest rate in Hong Kong dollars, as long as the United States cuts interest rates, the interest rate in Hong Kong will fall. In this way, the balance between stocks and debts will tilt to the stock side, and the market will buy the shares of high-interest stocks until their dividends fall to the level of balance with debt interest (interest rate).

A similar "interest rate cut transaction" was staged once last November. At that time, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting decided to end the interest rate hike process and began to cut interest rates in 2024. With the expectation of interest rate cuts, Shenhua’s share price immediately began to run away. The bottom of the market in January this year has almost nothing to do with him. The same logic applies to other high-interest stocks, such as China Mobile, China Unicom, Three Barrels of Oil, Zijin Mining and so on.

(China Shenhua stock price chart)

At present, the second interest rate cut this year is expected to hit full, so high-interest stocks must go wild.

HKEx benefits from the prospect of the New Deal.

Li Xiaojia, who has been in charge of the HKEx for 10 years, can’t overstate his contribution to Hong Kong stocks. However, its successor, Ou Guansheng, is the most mediocre CEO of HKEx, although his salary is the highest. During his tenure, the Hang Seng Index dropped from 30,000 points to 14,000 points, which greatly damaged the image of Hong Kong stocks and hurt Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center.

As a result, shortly after the A-share coach changed people around the Lunar New Year, the Hong Kong stock coach also changed people. Newcomers have a new look. Since the new CEO took office, he has vigorously introduced stimulus policies, such as the dividend tax reduction and exemption policy that caused the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to skyrocket by 8 points today and the high-interest stocks to run away collectively.

There are still rumors in today’s session that the HKEx intends to promote more large-scale technology companies to go public in Hong Kong.

This makes us investors who have experienced the wave of listing of large-scale science and technology stocks in Hong Kong in 2020 and the prosperity of IPO in Hong Kong stock market around the same year both excited and sad. It seems that the prosperous time was only yesterday, but the capsizing and fatuity in recent years have made people feel unbearable. If the old dream can be renewed, it will be fascinating.

There is also a Hong Kong Stock Exchange that is about to launch cycle rights. Of course, this series of rumors has not received an official response. In fact, HKEx’s innovation in derivatives has been advancing. Like the internal certificate launched in 2019. Although this has not been widely traded by investors.

From an outsider’s point of view, Hong Kong stocks actually have many advantages. Such as reducing or exempting stamp duty. In addition, HKEx is a comprehensive financial exchange, not only stocks, but also interest rates, exchange rates, commodities and other trading varieties, and there are many things to be done in innovation in these fields.

This year, the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stood at HK$ 285, which was less than three weeks from the previous low of HK$ 215, but it rose by nearly 30%. The coaching change and the New Deal have greatly boosted the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is both amazing and gratifying.

A wave of bull market, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s market generally has two rounds, the first round is the beginning of the bull market, and there will be a wave of runaway under various expectations. The second round is the end of the bull market. Investors are extremely excited and the volume of transactions is enlarged, which is reflected in the real performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At this time, the performance promotes the valuation, and Davis double-clicks.

Operationally, in the first case, you should boldly get on the bus, sit firmly and fasten your seat belt; In the second case, it is necessary to handle it carefully and make a profit on rallies.

So what stage do you think the HKEx is in now?

summary

Zhitong Finance clarified the conclusion that Hong Kong stocks may usher in a bull market on March 12, the day when the Hang Seng Index broke out in multiple sectors of the Hong Kong stock market and rose sharply.

Before this May Day holiday, we also published articles to continue to be optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market.

Today, with the further aerial relay of many sectors, the bull market posture of Hong Kong stocks is more symmetrical, full and healthy.

From now until the first interest rate cut, it will be the second good time for the stock market this year. In the bull market in the global market in January, only Hong Kong stocks and A shares were absent. This round of market seems to be to make up for what was owed to you in January. Therefore, this round of market cannot be missed again.

However, in the end, I would like to remind you that although the bull market is not at its peak, we should pay attention to the fluctuation of the market. Like the fluctuations on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, many investors were "shocked out of the car".

Therefore, although the market is hot, the position should still be grasped reasonably to avoid the mysterious operation of chasing up and down. Otherwise, even in the bull market, it is possible to play a "3000-point solution, 4500-point quilt cover" Sao-operated farce.

This article comes from: Zhitong Finance APP